This note emphasizes the idea that managers often want to ask experts to express their opinions on key business risks with the precise language of probability. Examples from the 2008 financial crisis pulled and include Value-at-risk accounting. The second half of this note explains how a manager might use a scoring rule to evaluate the quality of expert probability forecasts. This reminder is an instructor’s own real-time forecasting exercise where accompany … Read more »

This note emphasizes the idea that managers often want to ask experts to express their opinions on key business risks with the precise language of probability. Examples from the 2008 financial crisis pulled and include Value-at-risk accounting. The second half of this note explains how a manager might use a scoring rule to evaluate the quality of expert probability forecasts. This reminder is an instructor’s own real-time forecasting exercise, accompany predicted at the students at the beginning of a week, quantities, and events that are realized by the end of the week. The amounts and events can equity prices, commodity prices, interest rates, exchange rates, credit rating, political voices, film box-office receipts, TV Nielsen Ratings, weather events, sporting event attendance, and so on.
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Kenneth C. Dahl light
10 pages.
Release Date: 2 July 2009. Prod #: UV3899-PDF-ENG
Eliciting and analyzing expert opinion HBR case solution

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