The organizers of a music festival can use video from Friday concert to create a DVD for those who come to the Saturday concert to sell. Participation on Saturday is uncertain, since the percentage of those who visit on Saturday, buy the DVD. Is this a good project? If so, what should the number of DVDs burned early Saturday morning and will be available for sale that evening’s performance? Up to this time Friday presence is known, and if it rained on Friday and there is a forecast … Read more »

The organizers of a music festival can use video from Friday concert to create a DVD for those who come to the Saturday concert to sell. Participation on Saturday is uncertain, since the percentage of those who visit on Saturday, buy the DVD. Is this a good project? If so, what should the number of DVDs burned early Saturday morning and will be available for sale that evening’s performance? Up to this time Friday presence is known, and if it rained on Friday and there is a forecast, whether it will rain on Saturday. Historical information about these variables can help us predict Saturday participation with multiple regression, together with the results of a marketing survey, such an analysis will help us better buying decisions. This case series (see also the case UV0840) can be used to treat a variety of concepts that illuminate fall courses in basic decision analysis. The series begins with the investigation of the role of uncertainty in decision making, goes through the estimation of the probability distribution of sample data with multiple regression, culminating in the development of a complete decision model, and ends with a qualitative and quantitative analysis (with a Tornado diagram), such as value and reduce risk. Identify key pitfalls for students from out of no limits on both the revenue (supply and demand), incomplete reasoning in determining the participation probability distribution and simplified the full forecast model (ie average on Saturday rain / Saturday rain no results instead of including uncertainty explicitly in the simulation).
This is a Darden case study.
«Hide

from
Samuel E physical,
Robert Jenkins
Source: Darden School of Business
2 pages.
Publication Date: Sep 11, 2007. Prod #: UV0841-PDF-ENG
Lac Leman Festival de la Musique (B) HBR case solution